Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
